Savin I.F., Professor of the Department of Commerce, Marketing and Advertisement of the Murmansk State Technical University

In this article, a comparative characteristics of the thermal input of Russia and the developed countries of Europe and America has been considered.

Unfortunately, at the present stage of development, according to the thermal input indices, Russia is behind some other developed countries. The article also shows the dynamics of thermal input development in Russia up to 2020 and possible variants of the structural changes of heat supply sources, what will allow to reduce the use of heat energy resources for the production of heat energy.

The common tendency of all countries is a decrease of difference in power intensity between them as far as GDP per capita grows. To a less degree, differences in the consumption of original energy resources per one citizen grade.  

In developed countries, for a branch structure of final power-consumption, a tendency of the reduction of a production sphere share and the increase of a share of all kinds of transport (including personal transport) is typical. A non-production sector’s share is more stable. Until the 90-s, it had gradually raised, then it slowly began going down. But in the beginning of the XXIst century, this economic sector in power-consumption will be possessing the first place in West Europe and the second place in the USA, just a little yielding to the production sphere.

Below, the tendencies of final (input) power consumption per head in separate economic sectors are analysed. At the same time, the total consumption of energy bearers is calculated according to the methods of the International Energy Agency (electric power and heat are converted to original energy resources according to the heat equivalent).

In the non-production sphere of final energy consumption per head, Russia has reached a European level, but is considerably (2 times, approximately) behind the level of the USA and Canada. The differences in electric power consumption are also essential: in Russia – 1.2, in West Europe – 3.2, in North America – over 8 thousand kWh/per head.

Estimating a further dynamics of the energy consumption per head in this sphere in comparison with other countries, it is necessary to take into consideration that the average number of degree-days of the heating period in Russia is approximately 1.5 times higher than the Middle-European period and 2 times higher than in the USA. In Russian climate conditions, additional energy consumption for heating in West Europe would amount to approximately 0.5 t s.h./per head, and in the USA - 0.8 t s.h./per head.

Taking into account that in developed countries a regular connection between the square of heated accommodation and the state of economy is noticed, one can suppose that, when reaching a modern European level of GDP per capita, the floor space in Russia will be not less than 30 m2 /per head, and the square of public buildings - 11 m² /per head. Under other equal conditions, it implies an increase of energy consumption for heating and lighting by almost 2 times. But a real growth of energy consumption will be restrained by the improvement of heat and technical characteristics of new buildings and the rise of the energy use efficiency.

When a modern, Middle-European level of GDP production per head is reached, in Russia, final energy consumption per capita in the non-production sphere will be about 2.2…2.5 t s.h../per head, electric energy – 3.0…3.5 kWh/per head, that is it will raise in comparison with 1995 by 1.6…1.8 and 2.5…2.9 times, correspondingly.

The analysis of statistical data and foreign forecasts shows that:

- the reduction of energy intensity in the production sphere becomes slower, and the elasticity of energy consumption grows;

- power intensity on original energy decreases faster than on brought up energy; at the same time, the production of original energy resources per one unit of produced production drops slower than that referred to the total GDP unit;

- up to now, the power intensity in the production sphere of developed countries has been reducing, mainly, owing to some energy-saving measures, and in prospect, it is expected to decrease, mainly, due to some structural changes;

- the tempos of power intensity reduction are behind the tempos of heat intensity reduction.

According to the volumes of energy consumption per GDP unit in this sphere, Russia exceeds the USA and the countries of West Europe by over 4 times. It can be explained by both the structural specific features of its economy (a comparatively low share of a service sphere in GDP, a higher specific weight of power-consuming branches and so on), and a low effectiveness of the whole production sphere (the imperfection of economic mechanisms, a weak stimulation of the rational use of energy, material and labour resources).

In Russia, heat consumption in the period from 1991 to 2000 was constantly decreasing and in 2000 it was about 78 % of the level of 1990. It especially dropped in 1991-1996 (by 18%). About 77 % of heat needs were satisfied by district heating systems (DHS), and over 36 % of them – by heat power stations. Thus, almost 50 % of the total heat emission from DHS in 1990 were provided by the combined production of electric and heat energies. 
The results of the calculations according to the forecast estimation of the dynamics of heat energy emission from DHS sources in the period until 2020, are showed in Table 1. One can see from its analysis, that under the economic development according to an optimistic scenario, this index can rise by 35 % for 20 years, and according to a pessimistic one – only by 6 %.

Table 1. Results of the calculations according to the dynamics forecast estimation in the period until 2020

Note: here and further on, the nominator shows an optimistic scenario of the economic development, and the denominator presents a pessimistic one.

For the prognoses of the dynamics of the structure of heat sources on heat energy supply, it is necessary to give an estimation of the dynamics of the heat energy emission from the DHS heat sources forming part of the RAO “Russia’s EES”. In 2000, these sources provided 38 % of heat need, satisfied from all DHS. At the same time, about 80 % of heat energy supplied from DHS RAO “Russia’s EES”, were produced at the cogeneration plant, that is, mainly, on the basis of a combined production of electric and heat energies. 
In 2020, the fixed electric power of cogeneration plants, being part of RAO “Russia’s EES” (or its assignees), can rise by almost 20 % (under the realization of the optimistic scenario of the economic development) or reduce by 10 % (under the realization of the pessimistic scenario). At the same time, by 2020, over 50 % of the fixed electric power of these cogeneration plants, can constitute powers which are to be introduced in the period after 2000, and not less than 30 % - different combined-cycle plants.

Thus, heat consumption growth in Russia for the period from 2001 to 2020, can constitute 17 % under the pessimistic scenario of the economic development, and 29 % - under the optimistic one. At the same time, the issue of heat energy from the heat sources of the district heating systems, can rise by 6 % and 35 % correspondingly, under the growth of the issue of heat energy from the sources of decentralized heat supply by 45 % and 13 %. By 2020, the share of decentralized heat supply in Russia’s total heat consumption, can considerable go down (from 71.2 to 64 %) under the pessimistic scenario, and go up (from 71.2 to 75 %) under the optimistic one.

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