INERTIA – It generally has the structure of economy and industry and in areas there are low levels of technological change. Growth rate of GDP below the average: 1-2% per year and not more than 50% of the forecast period.

Within the inertia scenario in a combination of economic and political factors delayed the development of unique oil and gas deposits of the Arctic shelf.

Political scenario primarily concerns the instability of our relations with the United States by virtue of which the North American market for liquefied natural gas is not sufficiently attractive for Russian companies hence the medium delay in the implementation of Shtokman project. State and «Gazprom» has a priority to develop of the Yamal and Pur-Tazovskoy gas condensate province. With a view to further diversifying the areas of sales pipeline is laid in China (Asia-Pacific market). North-European gas pipeline at an early stage ensured by Yamal gas. The first product from the Shtokman field will be available in 2020 fnd by 2025 the volume of gas production reaches 30-40 billion m 3 per year.

Mining complex is the lead in Murmansk region economic structure. The use of new more powerful and cost-effective technology can save costs and the level of labor productivity in the context of deteriorating terms of production and quality of raw materials. However the commissioning of new enterprises, in particular, mining platinoids in Pansk?-Fedorovsky array, Sopcheozersky chromite deposits development etc. constrained by shortage of generating capacity which occurs outside of 2015 after the decommissioning of the Kola nuclear power plant units. Decreasing the supply of electricity to Karelia.

The fishing industry trend favoring the export of unprocessed products and high volumes of ship repair in the foreign ports. The general situation is characterized by low value added and low wages.

Transport complexes, as well as infrastructure in the region as a whole, develops a moderate pace. Scale export of general cargo and coal production is constrained by the development of competing facilities in the Baltic Sea, insufficient bandwidth Trans-Siberian Railway and the increasing consumption of Kuzbass coal thermal stations in the European part of the country in accordance with the Energy Strategy. The volume of general cargo does not exceed in 2025, 2-3 million tonnes including up to 100 thousand TEU containers (twenty-foot equivalent containers).

In general, labor productivity in the region's economy will grow up to 40-50%. The average wage will arise to 60-70% and will reach 1 thousand euros per month. Number of innovation active enterprises and the volume of manufactured technology products practically does not change.

Energy and raw materials - oil and gas sector is actively formed by industry and the necessary infrastructure but the Murmansk region is a transit region and the processing facilities are not created. Growth of GDP in line with average, overall growth in the projection period in the 2-2.5 times.

Energy and raw material options for the development of oil and gas sector is formed at a faster pace. First production from the Shtokman field is obtained already in 2016 and by 2025 the project went to project power in the 80-90 billion m3 per year. However, gas is totally devoted to the European market through a North-European gas pipeline system and Norway which by 2020 will begin to experience shortages of raw materials for shipment. The infrastructure will develop that provides all the functions of the sector and all of this together creates up to 5 thousand jobs.

Enterprises on processing of oil and gas in the Murmansk region are not formed. The industry plays the role of mediator for the production and transit of hydrocarbons so high added value sector does not create.

To provide electricity to the development of the shelf and compensation capacity of the outgoing generating enterprises in 2016-2017 will begin the first power Kola NPP-2 which creates prerequisites for the construction of new plants and development of existing industries mining complex. Maintained the same level producing of apatite and iron ore concentrates, metallurgical products sector, the project scope is formed producing of platinoids, chromites and titan-magnetite products.

In fish complex will modernizing processing plants and mining fleets. The growing purchasing power and capacity of the domestic market a significant portion of production goes to the port of Murmansk region and processed here including sales for export. Enlivened Shiprepairers and significantly increasing the volume of services to the fishing fleet.

There is increasing momentum of Murmansk transportation hub primarily due to bulk cargo that arrives by train (up to 10 million tonnes) and from coastal and marine terminals Nenets. The increased capacity of the Trans-Siberian Railway coal handling volume increases by half. The growth of general cargo is linked, basically, with the development of the shelf and to a lesser extent with export transit (with ATP) and domestic goods. By 2025 it will be 6-8 million tonnes, including up to 500 thousand TEU containers.

The increase in gross regional product will exceed twice the level and would be consistent with the average Russia performance. At least 80% growth will be achieved through increased productivity. Number of innovation active enterprises grows slightly but not to exceed 20% of the total.

INNOVATION - Oil and gas sector forms the processors in the region and high-level infrastructure. In traditional industries (mining and fish complexes) observed innovative trends. The GRP growth will be up to 3-3.5 times and productivity not less than 3 times which is higher than average rates.

The Innovation scenarios the main economic indicators in the degree of dominance will be determined by the growth of technical and technological level of production and services, the emergence of new enterprises with high added value products.

Due to acute shortage of natural gas in the North American market and the growing instability in the zone of the Gulf the United States Corporations and government agencies are paying greater attention to the diversification of LNG supply, primarily from Russia.

The fields of the Arctic developed rapidly, the first gas from the Shtokman field will be received as early as 2015, and produce liquefied natural gas plant will reach the design capacity in 2020 (45 million tonnes of LNG per year) and will fully supplied to the terminals west coast United States.

Construction of the largest in Europe plant will be the basis for the creation of special industrial zones to develop and replicate the new (upgraded) technological and technical solutions for the liquefied gas including for the purpose of import substitution. Murmansk Region has become the national center (the cluster) of the profile, the base of the direction of the Russian Federation. In particular, for the construction of a strategic set of liquefied natural gas plant on Yamal capacity to 80 million tonnes per year based not only on the SAR but also in the Asia-Pacific market. Large-scale transportation of LNG will be the main factor in the revitalization of the flow of goods in the west and in the eastern sector of the Northern Sea Route.

A modular type of refinery capacity of 3 million tonnes completed construction in 2015 to provide thermal power capacity of the peninsula and the Northern Fleet ships oil at reduced prices. Improve the competitiveness of mining complex and the standard of living in real terms.

In general, the Murmansk region energy is dynamically growing. The first Kola NPP-2 unit the capacity of 1 million kW will begins in 2016 and the second - in 2021 that not only provides the emerging oil and gas industry (in view of the outgoing power Kola NPP-1) but also creates conditions for the construction of the second stage of the Kandalaksha Aluminum plant which is the design capacity of 200 thousand tons in 2022.

Innovative developments in the Russian economy cause a sharp increase in demand for rare metals (earth) and their compounds. In the central part of the peninsula on the basis of Khibiny array and Lovozero tundras, institutions, Kola Science Center, Apatity and higher education institutions formed innovative development zone and subsequently the cluster for the production of strategic materials to the domestic industry on its basis. On the basis of new technologies are created by processing power nepheline fully satisfying the Kandalaksha Aluminum plant second part of alumina at an affordable price. The added value of products of JSC «Apatite» almost doubled.

Processors learn the latest technology for complex processing sea-products including the pharmaceutical industry.

Considerably enlivened the general cargo carriage through the Murmansk transport hub due to the accelerated development of Arctic fields and increase the export of transit cargo. They amount to 9-11 million tonnes per year including up to 1 million TEU of containers.

Mechanism to improve the institutional, economic and innovative level of service will be port special economic zone which provides technology and improving the efficiency of cargo including to ensure that national priorities in the development of transit along the Northern Sea Route. The volume of bulk cargo transshipment are 30 million tonnes a year while oil and petroleum products - 45 million tones.

The growth of gross regional product by 2025 would be 3-3.5 times higher than average growth rates. In connection with the formation of technology centers and clusters of innovation-intensive enterprises will be not less than 35% of the total number while the share of innovative products (based LNG) - at least 40% of the total industrial production.

Labor productivity will grow at least 3 times and the average wage in the manufacturing sector would be 2.5-3 thousand euros per month.

Model-based innovation and social development of the region requires in addition to using traditional resources and geographical competitive advantage increased new growth factors that meet internal and external challenges in the long run. This is the competitiveness strengthening of the economic system, improving the human capital efficiency; the high-tech industries accelerated development and as a consequence the radical improvement of living standards and creating a comfortable social environment. The integrated effect of factors should be considered to yield the Murmansk region on the path of sustainable socio-economic growth with the average rate adopted in the target scenario, 6.5-7.0% per year.

As already mentioned, the design strategy was adopted that created macroeconomic instability will not be long.

THE FUTURE KOLA NORTH IMAGE