For example, a necessary element of market economy is presence of free resources on a labour market.

On the other hand, unemployment is an instability sign. Inflation serves as certain "stimulator" of demand, but characterises also negative tendencies, especially if exceeds some "threshold" values. Therefore, to draw conclusions on necessity of updating of already developed forecasts, it is necessary to stop on methodical approaches to their working out, characteristic for last five years' period at national and regional levels.

Despite increase of level of macroeconomic stability of the Russian economy, forecasting of prospects of its development remains an actual problem as for separate experts and experts, research institutes, and for the department which are responsible for working out of official governmental forecasts - the Ministries of economic development of the Russian Federation. And the range of estimations even short-term tendencies is rather great. To tell enough, that in 2007 the initial estimation of growth of the Russian economy - 6,2 % - has been raised in the beginning to 6,5 %, and then to 7,3 %. And significant enough revisions of forecasts and in previous years [1] were regular.

Discrepancies forecast estimations with actually developing dynamics are even more essential at medium - and long-term forecast constructions. The most known example - the previous version of power strategy till 2020, accepted by the Government of the Russian Federation in 2003. Then, even in the top variant, rates of economic growth on long-term prospect were estimated less than in 5 %. Actually in 2004-2007 they have made about 7 %. As there will be economic dynamics in the subsequent (till 2020) the period, certainly, precisely it is not known. Nevertheless, clearly that at least in the intermediate term period the previous version of power strategy could not play a positive role of the document warning about fast occurrence of serious deficiencies in power sphere and especially in electrogeneration.

The forecast horizon is kept more away, the smaller value has forecasting of nominal indicators and cost proportions, that the big weight is got by characteristics of reproduction of the capital and technologies. However and is material-material characteristics of economy, despite their big rigidity and stability in time, on the intervals measured on years and the more so decades, can show wide enough range of changes.

The statement that the scientific forecast - not a prediction is true. The scientific forecast - always connected together system and complementary hypotheses, and in this sense it, by definition, should not be exact. But at the same time if in frameworks mutually co-ordinated systems of hypotheses of this forecast any knowledge of the future is not generated allowing to make quite certain decisions in the present value of the forecast essentially falls.

Actually under rigidity of the forecast degree of its validity means. The big validity of initial hypotheses and assumptions leads to rigidity and validity of the forecast. It is necessary to recognise that developed in last years various, including governmental, structures long-term forecasts do not differ sufficient level of rigidity. And not because professionals that is why, that the long-term forecast of development of scale economy cannot be developed forces of a small commission of experts, and in rather short terms, as a rule, established for such work are engaged in construction of these forecasts not.

The future is not unconditional and representation about it has alternative character. The understanding of substantial scenarios, judgement of probable "forks", alternatives and the reasons of their occurrence allow to make effective decisions. It is necessary to underline, that the information on the future gives the chance to make the decisions concerning not only to problems of day tomorrow's, but also to actual modern problems. In particular, in time the generated representation about future variants can predetermine a today's strategic choice of the state.

Researches of the future and use of their results both for working out of long-term strategy, and within the limits of current economic policy, assume presence in the country of the developed system of social and economic and scientific and technical forecasting. It means, that forecasting should not, as it has developed last years, to represent researches of the limited number of departments only incidental and poorly connected among themselves and separate academic institutes.

Generally speaking, the problem of working out of an image of the future is a problem of a substantiation of the list and priorities of the limited set of the purposes which consecutive realisation will lead to formation of most this image of the future. Here it is important to note basic distinction between scenario forecasting and future designing. Scenario forecasting - always, by definition, in many variants as it leans against this or that scenario. As to future designing it is more rigidly adhered to the certain, already fixed image of the future. However, in the course of movement to the future corrective amendments, even as a part of main objectives are always inevitable. But distinction consists that in the first case - scenario forecasting - the choice is not made yet while various scenarios are compared, and in the second - future designing - the movement direction is already defined.

Image of the future Kola North