It is important to evaluate the level of external economic security of the region to reach the intended results due to the increased attention to the development of investment projects in oil and gas business in the Murmansk region.

Maria Zubkova, MSTU, world economy and international economic relations department

One of the major national priorities is to provide economic security of regions. This is an indispensable condition for the stability and the efficient development of a country. Regional economic security is such a condition of the economic system (research and development and resource spheres and their structure, level and quality of life) when national economic interests turn to be invulnerable and independent from the impact of external threats. Regional economic security of a region is dependant from the volume of investments, the renovation of a fixed capital, the recovery of the investment activity, the enhancement of the investment processes efficiency. Investment processes lead to the development of the region, the activity of economic entities and, in many respects, define the way of the development of other economic processes.

It is important to evaluate the level of external economic security of the region to reach the intended results due to the increased attention to the development of investment projects in oil and gas business in the Murmansk region. It is known, that the amount of funds invested into the integrated development of a Shtokman gas-condensate deposit, including the compressed natural gas production factory and the port complex for its' shipment, will be more than 44 $ billion. In accordance with the recent events, it should be noted that Gazprom has not stopped the development of the deposit for three years, but postponed making a final investment decision concerning the project for a year.

There are several factors which predetermine attracting investments into the regional economy:

1. Economic rates. Investors are interested in the economic potential of the region. In particular, the higher is the level of GRP (gross regional product), the higher is the potential of the internal demand and the appeal of the region for potential investors.

2. The level of infrastructure development. This rate shows how it is difficult and costly to find suppliers and to distribute goods among different markets. Particularly, the development of the traffic network (the density of roads and railways, airports etc.) provides the easier way to deliver necessary materials, equipment and constituent parts for enterprises-producers and promote a faster and more effective distribution of produced goods among consumers. Modern means of communication, the level of development of a credit and financial infrastructure are factors which also distinguish the inflow of investments into the region.

3. The level of institutional development.

4. Regional economic policy.

5. Regional openness for external economic relations. The level of this openness is connected with the external commerce.

6. Geographical peculiarities of the region (2, P. 108)

The favorable level of external economic security (EES) of the region will conduce to attracting investments and project implementation in the oil and gas sector in the Murmansk region.

Since the level of EES is carried out in the system of close relations between external economic complex and regional economy (i.e. on the one hand the results of its' functioning are determined by the development of all spheres of activities, on the other hand - determine them), the social indicator will be used as the input parameter to estimate EES of the region. Indicators, which reflect the level of external economic complex development in accordance with the modern tendencies of the world economic development, are used as input parameters.

Corresponding indicators cover the basic spheres of life activities of the region: industrial, investment, social, financial and external economic.

According to the data presented in tables, it is possible to follow the dynamics of actual values of indicators which influence the EES of the Murmansk region and to compare them with threshold indicators. This enables to define the rank of the region according to each sphere of life activity. The value of integral indicator of security is defined for each particular sphere. If the integral criterion is 0,75 or more - the situation in this sphere is satisfactory, if 0,5-0,74 - precritical, if less than 0,5 - the situation is critical.

The integral criterion of the EES of the Murmansk region shows that the situation in all spheres, except the investment one, is satisfactory. But the dynamics of EES indicators of the region moves down. The reason of this occurrence is in general economic downturn of Russia and the world in general. In the course of EES monitoring, the integral indicators of security in the external economic activity in the Murmansk region have been defined. In 2006, the indicator was 1,03 (satisfactory), in 2007 - 0,75 and in 2008 - 0,72 (precritical situation with negative dynamics). This indicates general deterioration in the external economic security of the region. It is not possible to provide a detailed analysis of the reasons of the deterioration in this article. The implementation of a top-priority investment project for the Murmansk region - Shtokman filed development -will influence positively the level of the external economic security as, up to this point, the investment sphere has been a vulnerable unit in providing the external economic security in the region. As for the investment sphere, in the investment structure to a fixed capital of the Murmansk region among the industrial sectors, the main part (30,6%) belongs to an extractive industry, which is 9,5% in GRP.

A leader in the GRP structure is a manufacturing industry, but its equity contribution to a fixed capital is only 7,3%. Among other industries, which are 10% in the investment structure, are transport and connection, the production and distribution of electric power, gas and water. Fishing industry, having 10,1% in GRP, takes a position behind in investments to a fixed capital - its part in a general structure is 2,7%. The volume of investments to a fixed capital from all sources of financing was 44,1 billion rubles in 2008 or 141,2% in 2007. The Ministry of economic development of the Murmansk region has covered planned investment projects in the oil and gas sector.

In the modern conditions of the economic development, it is crucial to be acquainted with the critical parameters of threats to prevent destructive processes in the regional economy. The critical value of the economic index indicates the necessity of a regulatory agency intervention to change hazard tendencies. What is more, the predicted volume of investments into oil and gas projects will favorably affect the external economic security of the region. As a result, the development of a new industrial sector - oil and gas sector, including raw hydrocarbons production, its transportation and processing, is in the list of top-priority and long-term goals.

REFERENCES:

1. Gazprom disproves itself: timing of a Shtokman deposit development remains the same. Assess mode: https://www.newsru.com/finance/10feb2010/shtokmann.html

2. Arsenteva, I. I., 2008. Russian regions in the system of national security. East-West, p. 108.

3. World Economic Outlook Database, October 2008. Assess mode: www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008

4. Informational statistical materials about socioeconomic status of regions. Assess mode: https://www.gks.ru.

5. Statistics digest "External economic policy of organizations of the Murmansk region"/ Federal State Statistics Service, Territorial body of Federal State Statistics Service in the Murmansk region. Murmansk, 2009, p. 33.

THE INDUSTRIAL NORTH MAGAZINE #2 May 2010