The problem of researchers - to prove variants of an image of the future, a problem of politicians, and is possible also the population, - to choose a desirable (optimum) way of development and to express it in terms of the limited set of the purposes.

Accurately, distinctly formulated purpose always helps to understand, what sort of action and what economy stand up for realisation of this problem. Besides, the scale purposes, as a rule, assume large quantity presence подцелей and more or less certain system of measures and institutes.

Thereupon we believe that for the long-term plan for development absolutely not enough one purpose, for example gross national product doubling. However, it is not enough and hundred purposes if they - no more than the declaration on intentions. It is necessary, that these purposes have turned to system of obligations of an executive power, in the system generating movement of material and financial streams. It is essential thus that for the national purposes of development answered not only the separate ministries and departments, but also the government.

As a subject for discussion the following structure of main objectives for the forthcoming 15-year-old period is offered:

1. Doubling of scales of road and infrastructural building.

2. Doubling of generating capacities of power stations.

3. The scale housing programme (finishing of inputs of habitation not less than to 100 million sq. m a year).

4. Maintenance of updating of a fixed capital in branches at level not below 8 %.

5. Increase of norm of accumulation of a fixed capital to 30 % of gross national product.

6. Decrease on third of power consumption of manufacture.

7. Finishing of an educational level and terms of training of the population to the level accepted in France and Germany.

8. Achievement of level of security of urban population by personal computers and access to a network the Internet, corresponding to Central European level.

9. Maintenance of gross national products of rates of growth of export advancing dynamics.

10. A conclusion to the world markets not less than ten large companies of processing industries.

11. Decrease in level of differentiation of the population under incomes to Central European level.

12. Increase in average life expectancy in Russia till 70 years.

Full elimination uncertainties concerning the future is objectively impossible. Therefore at any workings out forecasts inevitably acceptance of the whole system of hypotheses and assumptions. And it is important that these hypotheses and assumptions have been co-ordinated among themselves and did not contradict each other. Besides, forecasting always assumes expenses comparison and results in frameworks forecast calculations. And the coordination of hypotheses, and expenses comparison and results and formation of the total forecast demand corresponding modelling toolkit.

The lack of operating system of forecasting consists that it is under construction proceeding from requirements only federal level of management. The Ministry of Economics of the Russian Federation formed system of indicators of regional forecasts proceeding from offers of the departments. Thus requirements of authorities of subjects of the Russian Federation were not considered. As, as follows from the regional policy of Russia, all more considerable part of economic and social problems is within the competence of the subject of the Russian Federation, the operating system of forecasting does not cover many vital regional problems and cannot serve as the tool for decision-making on regional development. In particular, behind frameworks of the centralised forecast there are such questions, as use of natural resources, intraregional differentiation of an economic situation and social programs, a financial position of the enterprises of various branches, intensity of outflow of financial resources, investment appeal of region and a number of other questions having basic value.

Structure of the long-term factors considered at a substantiation of regional development:

1 transport-geographical and geopolitical positions, their influence on size of expenses in manufacture and the reference of the goods, on gravitation to the various regional markets, on conditions of foreign economic relations;

2 nature-climatic conditions, their influence on life cost, on size of industrial expenses, on building cost;

3 sociohistorical features, character of moving, their influence on structure of social sphere and the size of budgetary expenses, on population employment;

4 levels of economic development, specialisation in a territorial division of labour, economy redistribution degree.

The estimation of modern social and economic position is provided during the analysis into which problems enter:

1 estimation of results and tendencies of economic development;

2 estimations of results and revealing of problems of social development;

3 estimations of a condition of ecology and revealing of the reasons of ecological crises;

4 estimation of the external economic and inter-regional communications;

5 revealing of regional crisis situations, including having nation-wide value;

6 estimation of a course of economic reforms, their efficiency;

7 estimation of a course of performance of target programs (federal and regional);

8 estimation of productivity of the state regional policy;

9 estimation of financially-budgetary position of region.

The estimation of preconditions and potential possibilities of development of region is carried out at the first prediction phase and includes:

1 estimation of nature potential (raw, ground, wood and water resources);

2 estimation of industrial potential (presence, a condition and character of reproduction of the basic production assets);

3 estimation of financial potential, including the financial resources remaining in region and directed to the federal budget and off-budget funds;

4 estimation of a demographic situation and labour potential;

5 estimation of investment potential;

6 estimation of scientific and technical potential;

7 estimation of an export potential, competitiveness of the basic branches and the largest enterprises.

IMAGE OF THE FUTURE KOLA NORTH