Change of criteria and factors of regional development essentially changes estimations of rationality of the developed placing of productive forces, demands new methods of a substantiation of directions adequate to market conditions and measures on its perfection.

All it predetermines expediency of research of processes of formation of the regional markets, revealings of regional crisis situations in social, economic and ecological spheres, estimations of financial and investment potentials of regions and inter-regional redistribution of financial resources, studying of features of a course of economic reforms and the analysis of some other problems directly connected with modern type of social and economic transformations. And problems of scientific researches of a condition of regional economy are put forward proceeding not only from necessity of forecasting of social and economic development of the country and formation of territorial strategy. Not less the great value gets the analysis of effectiveness of a regional policy and its substantiation in various spheres of a life of a society.

As we see, operating methodical approaches on national and furthermore at regional level have been rather poorly focused on possibilities of increase of instability in home markets and furthermore on a global scale. It is represented, that essential results here hardly would be given also by the modelling that does not have corresponding indicators on an input. By preparation of Strategy of social and economic development of Murmansk area till 2025 the basic attention has been given at once to the scenarios approach. Thus authors distinctly understood, that with dominating probability any of three developed scenarios will not be realised but have been thus precisely assured, that at any of possible developments of real processes the actual trajectory will be somewhere between these three directions. Besides such approach gives the chance to adapt the scenario most well perceiving external indignations to some accuracy.

The forecast approach in this case means the subject scheme with several directions in which attempt to define the most possible variants of "behaviour" of social and economic system of region taking into account a current condition and probable calls becomes.

The method of scenarios consists in realisation by collective of experts of research of the future development of processes with revealing of potential possibilities and consequences. The purpose of scenarios preparation – logic illumination of the hypothetical future in social and economic development. The scenario is written for the purpose to forecast the future situation that will allow defining more qualified the specific purposes and the problems necessary measures in various variants of a situation development. At scenario formation it is possible to show how one typical variant can become a source of occurrence of the whole family of updatings.

The forecast scenario has following advantages:

1 it is the most effective method of easing of traditional vision;

2 it compels experts to "plunge" into unfamiliar social and economic situations, instead of to consider only those variants which represent simple projections of the present;

3 expert is compelled to be engaged in details and elements which it easily could miss by consideration of separate general tendencies.

It is impossible to tell, that by working out of Strategy of social and economic development of Murmansk area for the period till 2025 which has begun in March 2008 participants distinctly saw a forecast situation in the external and internal environment, including the global depressive phenomena. Nevertheless, certain calls and factors have been considered. In social and economic development of region it is possible to divide external calls with a certain share of convention into three big groups.

The first are circumstances, on which public authorities and municipal management, representatives of business and a civil society to affect practically cannot in any way.

For example, it is fluctuations of demand and the prices in the world markets or analogues of modern financial crisis. The second group – factors on which region influence minimum, but all the same is possible: redistribution of powers in sphere of the government and centralism strengthening, including in sphere of a budgetary policy; the international situation, including in struggle for resources of Arctic regions (in particular, water area borders delimitation). At last, the third group – where all administrative and public institutes should operate is integrated for the purpose of protection of interests of region: interaction with the separate interested ministries and departments, including on realisation of federal target programs and projects; dialogue with operating companies (holdings) concerning development of the corresponding enterprises and the organisations; frontier cooperation, etc.

IMAGE OF THE FUTURE KOLA NORTH