NOVIKOVYU.N.. All-Russian petroleum exploration institute (VNIGRI), Russia

If we may compare Russian Arctic shelf with giant pie. main approaches to it's using may be presented as follows: 1) pie is big, but wet, so we can't eat this pie in the close future; 2) pie is big and delicious, so we can bite off its edges just now; 3) it is our main food, so we should use this pie gradually and cut it preliminary.

Development of arctic shelf has some specific features. It is not real and not rational to develop several fields for requirement needs of the coast regions, which have large petroleum infrastructure, and for modest export supplies. Arctic shelf development should be a quite different in comparison with schemes of oil and gas production in the Azov, Okhotsk and Baltic Seas. This is regional level of problem. So it may be solved in program and large scale forms.

This problem may be formulated more concretely in the each element forming content of hydrocarbon investigations and development: 1 - forecast evaluation, 2 - management of investigations. 3 - organization of development.

1. Forecast element is traditionally presented by recourses evaluation on 01.01.1993 (on 01.01.1987 in fact). New evaluation is not approved and now it is backward according real process of study of hydrocarbon potential in the Pechora and Kara Seas.

Traditional resources evaluation as in the old its variant, both in the new modification, has rather generalized character and hasn't aim to separate the most active (commercial) part of giant hydrocarbon potential in the Arctic shelf It is appropriate that temp and volumes of oil and gas production in the Arctic shelf established with Federal programs, based on resource potential as a whole, are not supported yet by concrete investment projects and plans of potential companies oriented on commercial plays having discovered fields first of all.

In our opinion, traditional resources evaluation should be added with the factors promoting real or incipient processes of marine oil and gas production in the other regions of Russia. It is the Sea of Azov, the Baltic Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, the Caspian and Pechora Seas.

The main categories of factors determining marine hydrocarbon fields development are as follows: parameters of fields (value of resources, phase structure of them. i.e. oil/gas ratio); petroleum geologic position of fields (vicinity with marine oil and gas basins, belonging to zonal accumulations), accessibility for development determining mainly with sea depth and distance from a shore, presence of fuel and energy complex providing integrated centers of oil and gas production: combination of interests of all the interested parties (Federal center, coast regions, investors, oil and gas producing companies) and state of the world market. According to these factors and their combinations, arctic offshore may be differentiated at different levels with determination of queue of multifarious objects development.

2. The main instruments of management of the process of marine hydrocarbon potential study are as follows: program for regional exploration works devoted to additional geological study and pre-licensing preparation of arctic offshore (2004-2010) and program of license process (2002-2005).

Funds of Federal budget, apportioned on realization of the first program (4,3 million rub.), are not sufficient for supplying license process in future. All the more, license program, confirmed now, aren't fulfilled neither for terms both for preliminary planned objects. And appearance of such "out-of-program" objects category as "parts of sea bottom requested for using" is evidence of non-balanced interests of Federation and producing companies in limits of present program.

Planned licensing may be more well-grounded and real if it'll based on pre-licensing zonation - mapping base which is constantly refreshed and reflects modem state of license process. Pre-licensing zonation, in its turn, is based on resources evaluation and development factors, defined by world experience in marine oil and gas production.

3. The program of licensing should be elaborated with the purpose to become a base for creating and development of marine oil and gas production centers as the main organizational forms for study and exploration of hydrocarbon potential of the Arctic shelf They should join marine offshore, coast regions and shallow water transition zones on united infrastructure base. Contours of the Shtokmanovsko-Murmanskoe, Pechora Sea and South Kara centers are rather clear previewed. Creation of Laptev Sea and East Arctic centers is cause of future.

Thus, according to specific features of Arctic shelf we propose: 1) to use main factors of marine field development; 2) to elaborate system of pre-licensing zonation; 3) to organize centers of marine oil and gas production.

References
Belonin M.D., Grigorenko Yu.N, Novrkov Yu.N Preparation of a resource base within the limits of future centers of offshore oil and gas production - a general direction of developing Russia offshore oil-gas industry. // The present and future of resource base of Russia offshore oil-gas industry. S.-Pb. 2004. P. 2-20.
Novrkov Yu.N. Components of strategy of studying and developing the offshore hydrocarbon resources of Russia. // Strategy of developing the resource base of main power-bearers in Russia. S.-Pb. 2004. P. 26-27.

ARCTIC SHELF OIL AND GAS CONFERENCE 2004