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The theme of the socio-economic development of the Murmansk Region is interested in many business leaders because this directly affects the successful operation of most organizations. In the last issue of the magazine covers the development of investment activity in our region over the next few years. Today we offer to our readers report Sergey Semenov, first deputy head of the Department of Economic Development of the Murmansk region, which specifies the forecast of socio-economic development of the Murmansk region in 2007. 

Department of Economic Development is to clarify the socio-economic development of the area in 2007. They need due to some changes in comparison with the previous version, the scenario conditions of the Russian and regional economy, more information to forecast the materials submitted by business entities. In addition, the projections take into account socio-economic development of municipalities of the area (A workshop with the economic authorities of 17 cities and districts of the region), the results of socio-economic development of the region in January-August this year refined Rosstat statistics for 2005. 

First, some information about some of the results of socio-economic development since the beginning of the year taking into account the changes that have occurred since the June meeting of the Government of the area and which would affect the assessment of the expected outcomes of this year. In general for 8 months the positive trend continues. The index of industrial production remained at the level of January-April -101.9%. At 2.3 percentage points increased the index of industrial production in terms of «mining». In the fisheries sector performance is improved, where the index of production for economic activity «Fishing» was 106.5% versus 104.4% in January-April 2006. 

Overcome the reduction in investment: the index of physical volume of investment in fixed assets increased from 79.8% in January-April, TG to 119.3% in August (through the acquisition of equipment valued at more than 2 billion rubles in category «Transport and communication»). 
At the same time, some economic indicators of the situation have deteriorated. The industry growth rate of production of iron ore concentrate and nickel in the first eight months was lower than they were in January-April (iron ore concentrate -102.9/105.1% nickel -102.5/104.5%, the index of industrial production economic activity «Manufacturing» -102,1/103,4%). Increased losses of enterprises, which as of August 1, amounted to 2 billion rubles to 1.2 billion as at 01 April 2006. But the overall situation in the field of finance has improved. 

A profit of 14.1 billion rubles got since the beginning of the year with an increase to the level of last year by 10% (by 1.3 billion rubles). In the first four months of this indicator the results were lower than last year. 

A LITTLE ABOUT STANDARDS OF LIVING PERFORMANCE

Cash income received by a population of over 8 months of 2006 has a total 79.3 billion rubles. Growth from last year is 16,7% (January-April - to 13,9%). Due to lower inflation real cash earnings exceeded the same period last year at 7.9% to 5% in January-April. The average monthly wage for a full range of organizations from the beginning of the year is more than 14,2 thousand rubles (January-April -13.7 thousand rubles). Compared with the corresponding period last year it increased 1.2 times. Retail trade turnover, catering and services sector are increased. The situation in the labor market and employment become better and unemployment is decreased. Officially registered unemployment rate fell compared with last year at 0.4 percentage points, at April 2006 - by 0.7 percentage points and amounted to 3.1%. 

A FEW WORDS ABOUT THE 2006 EVALUATION RESULTS 

In response to rising prices in the market of non-ferrous metals the combined index of producer prices of industrial goods will increase (compared to previously submitted data) to 2.6 percentage points and will be 117.5%. The most significant expected increase in nickel prices (at 52.6%) and copper (at 87.6%). Accordingly, in the manufacturing industry as a whole the volume of shipping will be higher at 4.6 billion rubles (up to 54.5 billion rubles). 

In connection with the positive trends established from the beginning of the year assessment of trafficking organizations in category «Fishing» increased from 15.2 billion to 18.5 billion rubles, the index of industrial production for this type of activity - from 100.1% to 103 %. 
To refine the assessment for 2006 will be a reduction of shipped goods of own production, works and services in the mining industry, made its own (from 30.8 billion to 29.8 billion rubles) in connection with the reduction of contract prices for iron ore concentrate JSC «Kovdor GOK». This enterprise release of iron ore concentrate to decrease by 1 percentage point reaching 99.2% due to problems with marketing companies (JSC «Magnitogorsk metallurgical combine» refused to enter into a contract with the company for the supply of this type of product). At the same time increase compared with the earlier estimate, the production of apatite concentrate (from 100.4% to 102.1%). 

Financial results of enterprises and organizations of the area as a whole are expected to better pre-assessment: the value of net financial result - to 1 billion rubles, profit - at 1.6 billion rubles. As a result the aggregate net financial result of business organizations of the area including small enterprises and credit organizations formed in the volume of 19 billion rubles, which is above the level of last year to 4.3 billion rubles (29%). Profit organizations (the basis for the formation of the tax base for profit tax) is estimated at 23.2 billion with an increase by 2005 to 4.1 billion rubles (21.5%). 

It is possible and better results if the favorable price situation on the markets of non-ferrous metals and shipping. 

Reduced performance indicators for employment in the economy (by 2.9 thousand) due to reduced reporting of statistical database on «The balance of the labor force for 2005» in comparison with the preliminary reported data. 

The situation prevailing during the reporting period mainly to withstand the expected rates of inflation, subject to containment of prices for the products of natural monopolies and gasoline. However, perhaps a slight excess of forecast inflation for the year - to 110% versus 109.8% due to the upcoming increase in the cost of travel on public transport in size, slightly above the level of tariffs stipulated in the previous forecast, as well as possible increases in the prices of grain, vegetable and fruit market (August 2006 -100.3%, August 2005-disinflation). 

The increase in estimates of the amounts of cash proceeds received by the population in 2006 due to higher reporting of statistical base in the «balance of income and expenditure for the year 2005» more than 1 billion rubles. 
To refine the assessment income residents of the area will grow over the previous year to 16.4% and prevail in the amount of 124 billion rubles, its actual content will increase by 7%. It may be noted this fact: if in 2005 the real income of more than «before-default 1998» at the level of 5,3%, in 2006, growth reached 12.7%. 

The increase in estimates of the size of the average monthly wage in 2006 to 15 thousand rubles due to mature in January-July 2006 the wage increase. The real content of wages will increase compared to 2005 to 10.3%. 

On the consumer market trend, which as reported previously characterized by high volume growth turnover of retail trade, catering and services sector due to rising real wages and pensions, an increase in other income, the volume of consumer lending. 

Now, let’s talk on the changes in forecasts for 2007. 

INDUSTRY AND FOREIGN TRADE ACTIVITIES

Clarification of the 2006 data, the change scenario conditions MEDT Russia (indices-deflators and the dollar) and the revision of the forecast prices of nonferrous metals have led to a change in some of predictive indicators for the year 2007. 

In the manufacturing due to changes in forecast prices of nonferrous metals volume of shipped goods of own production, performed their own works and services will grow from 48 billion rubles to 51.4 billion rubles. Will be produced and distributed electricity, gas and water amounting to 28.4 billion rubles, which is 1.3 billion rubles more than in the previously submitted data due to the anticipated increase of 13 percentage points the rate of growth of tariffs for thermal energy for the year 2007. 

However, the activity «Mining» the volume of shipped goods of own production will decrease from 35.8 billion to 33.9 billion rubles in connection with the lowering of JSC «Olkon» and JSC «Kovdor GOK» contract prices for iron ore concentrate on compared to previously submitted data. In 2007 the export will be supplied goods and services amounting to 2473.1 million U.S. dollars (an increase of 191.8 million U.S. dollars). 

By type of activity «Fishing» trafficking organizations in 2007 will be 20.1 billion (an increase of 2.9 billion due to refinement of indicators in 2006). 

Investment and construction

With regard to the uncertainty of the start of full construction in the next year a plant to produce liquefied gas the government considers necessary to make changes to reduce compared with the June forecast of the volume and the volume index of investment and work carried out by type of activity «construction». (Investments up to 3 billion rubles, on civil and erection works are at 1.2 billion USD). It should be noted that the revised forecast trend of significant growth in retained investment: the expected results of this year - at 29% (such growth does not was in the last 5 years in Russia -10-12%). 

Clarification of the forecast financial performance of organizations in the Murmansk region in 2007 based on changes in the scenario conditions, in particular, the highest compared with the previous forecast the growth rate in the heat (20% vs. 7%). In the revised forecast of financial results we take into account the higher prices in the market of non-ferrous metals and take into consideration the new information provided by businesses. 

As a result, refinements compared with the June forecast profit of profitable enterprises is expected to more than 1.3 billion and is projected in the amount of 23,5 billion rubles. Losses are projected at 2.7 billion rubles (it was 1.8 billion rubles.). 

Net financial result of the organizations field (for the full range) is projected to total 20.8 billion with an increase to the expected level of 2006 to 1.8 billion rubles, while the level of 2005 - at 6.1 billion rubles (41.3%). 

Gross Regional Product

The slight decline in growth of GDP in 2007 to 0.2 percentage points compared with the earlier forecast due to reduced levels of investment in fixed assets and work performed by activity «construction». 

Indices of consumer prices and tariffs

In September, the Russian Federation Ministry of Economic Development updated macroeconomic and social-economic development of Russia, while maintaining the projected inflation rate for 2007 as a whole but increasing the average annual growth rate of prices for paid services on the 1.6 percentage point reduction in the rate of growth of prices of goods at 0,4 PM. Projected prices for paid services to the general population of Russia to a certain extent affect the change in tariffs for services to the population in the area. 

Growth rates for the services of a year (by December 2006) would be -112% versus 111.2% calculated earlier (2005-122, 4%). 

Based on these circumstances, in 2007 the growth rate of consumer prices for goods and services for the year (December 2006) slightly exceeded the target parameters of inflation in Russia and will 107,5-108,5%. In the coming year will continue the trend of advancing growth of real income compared to the prices of goods and services. Projected rates of cash income for the year 2007 remains unchanged - in the amount of 144.9 billion rubles (as compared with 2005 increased almost 1.4-fold). This will change (decrease) the rate of growth due to a change in reporting data in 2005 and the assessment of 2006 (base has grown). The real incomes of the population-adjusted price index increase over 2005 by 15%. Increased targets an average monthly wage in 2007 to 17,380 rubles. The real content of wages will increase compared to 2005 to 17.6%. 

Excess of predictive indicators contributed (along with the increase in wages of workers of budgetary sphere) increase of receiving additional payments as well as measures taken for the withdrawal of salary from the shadows, identify the organizations working on the «gray» schemes pay and pay salaries at levels below the subsistence minimum. 

These are major changes that the Department of Economic Development considers it necessary to amend the forecast of socio-economic development of the area in 2007. The Department continues to work to refine the prognosis of selected indicators, in particular, on agriculture and some other areas.

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