LARICHKIN F.D., BASHMAKOVA E.P., DIDYK V.V.
The Luzin Institute for Economic Studies, KSC, RAS, Russia

By the results of the open contest for fulfillment of research work the Kola Science Centre (KSC) of the Russian Academy of Sciences was acknowledged the winner. 

By now Institutes of the KSC, among which the Luzin Institute for Economic Studies became the main elaborator, completed 3 of the 5 stages of the envisaged in the Technical task work, that is planned to be ended in December 2008. Draft of the Strategy Conception and reports on the completed stages are put on the official website of the Murmansk region Government for broad public discussion of the documents.

When elaborating parts of the Strategy regarding future development of the Murmansk region, projects connected to the planned development of the Arctic shelf and, first of all, Shtockman gas condensate deposit inevitably became the key factors influencing prospects of socio-economic development of the region. Three scenarios were considered, envisaging different most probable combinations of external and internal development factors: inertial, energy-raw material and innovation.

The inertial scenario stipulates that during practically the whole forecasted period the mining industrial complex will keep its leading role in the economy structure.

The Arctic shelf unique oil and gas fields are developed slowly due to a number of unfavourable for the region economic and political factors. The development beginning and reaching the rated capacity of the Shtockman field occurs after 2020. Under these conditions, if keeping the existing in the last years growth rates of gross regional product (GRP) at the level of 1,5-2,0%, its total real increase can be 50% by 2025. It implies a considerable lag behind the average growth rates of the country’s economy, which according to the Conception of long-term social-economic development of the Russian Federation, are forecasted at the level of 6-7% a year that will provide not less than double increase of real GRP volume already in 2020 compared to 2007. Consequences of such situation for the Murmansk region are connected to lagging behind the Russian average growth rates of population living standard, and, correspondingly, persistence of the trend of population migration outflow. In turn, this will result in a significant population decrease (from 850,000 people in the beginning 2008 to approximately 710,000 people by 2025).

Energy-raw material scenario envisages that the oil and gas sector of the economy develops in high rates and according to the plans first production from the Shtockman field is delivered already in 2013. By 2027 extraction reaches the rated capacity of 70 billion m3 annually, however gas is totally transported through the North-European gas pipeline to the European market. By this scenario the plan to construct an oil processing factory in the region was not realized. The region functions as an intermediate providing extraction and transit of of hydrocarbon raw materials, therefore the sector does not generate high value added. At the same time projects of construction of new enterprises of the mining industrial complex and transport infrastructure units are in full measure realized within the Complex development of the Murmansk transport centre. In general, this scenario can ensure achievement of the Russian average growth rates of GRP and population incomes. However at the same time population differentiation by income level strengthens due to their concentration in the energy-raw material sector, that infringes interests of employees in other sectors and breaks the principles of social justice. Population migration outflow declines compared to the present level and the inertial scenario, but persists within 3,000-4,000 people a year.

The innovation scenario also stipulates keeping the previously fixed periods of Shtockman field development. At the same time under the influence of an active policy of state authorities, socio-economic development of the region is determined by strengthening role of science-technical and innovation complexes, growth of technical-technological level in the field of production and services, appearance of new of new specialization industries and new enterprises manufacturing products with high value added, formation of production clusters and regional innovation system, that in total ensures increase of diversification level of the regional economy.

Construction in the region of the largest in the Europe LNG plant (launching in 2013 and reaching the rated capacity of 30 million tons of liquefied gas in 2020) serves as the basis for establishment of a special industrial-production zone and a production cluster for elaboration and distribution of new (modernized) technological and technical solutions for gas liquefaction. The Murmansk region becomes a national centre of elaboration of technologies of natural gas liquefaction, the basic one for this activity in RF. Large-scale deliveries of LNG become the main factor for cargo traffic revival both in the western and the eastern sectors of the North Sea Route.

On the basis of the agreement between the Murmansk region Administration and the open joint stock company “Gazprom” the issue of gasification of settlements and enterprises is solved that increase energy provision and energy safety in the region.

In 2015 construction in the region of an oil processing factory of module type with the capacity of 6 million tons is completed, that provides heat and power engineering capacities of the Kola Peninsula and ships of the Northern navy with black oil for prices lower than those for black oil delivered from outside the region.

Owing to accelerated technical-technological renovation, stirring up of innovation activities, competitiveness of enterprises of the mining and other traditional for the region’s economy sectors raises.

The power engineering complex of the Murmansk region develops dynamically. In 2016 the first energy unit of the Kola nuclear power station-2 with the capacity of 1 million kWt is put into operation; and in 2021 – the second one, that not only totally provides the forming oil and gas industry (taking into account the quitting facilities of the Kola nuclear power station-1), but also creates conditions for development of enterprises of other industries, including construction of nepheline concentrate processing factory and production of aluminum.

Due to formation of technological centres and clusters number of innovation-active enterprises accounts fro not less than 35% of their total number, and share of innovation production (taking into account liquefied natural gas) is not less than 40% of total industrial production in the region.
In general by this scenario GRP growth rates can exceed those for the country (in 2005 GRP can increase 3-3.5 times compared to 2007). Average wage will reach 3,000 Euro, that will ensure preservation of economic advantages of living and working in the region compared to other regions of the country.

Analysis has shown that only the innovation scenario, that side by side with the indicated economic preconditions envisages realization of an active socio-economic policy of the state authorities, can ensure achievement of the main goal of the Strategy: “augmenting of the human potential and growth of population life quality in the Murmansk region on the basis of its innovation, sustainable social, economic and ecologically balanced development, ensuring the status of the region as a prosperous region with life quality at the level of standards of the North European countries”.

Thus, projects connected to development of the Arctic shelf oil and gas resources to a large extent determine realization of the target scenario and achievement of the goals of the Strategy of socio-economic development of the Murmansk region. At the same time it should be underlined that technical complexity of shelf fields’ development requiring most advanced technologies, on the one hand, can ensure a breakthrough in innovation development of the region and, on the other hand, it is connected to considerable risks that especially intensified under the conditions of the unstable world economy.

The Murmansk region connects great hopes to realization of the project on development of the Shtockman field. In the region there is understanding that socio-economic benefits from its realization will to a large extent depend on the degree of involvement of the region’s production and labour potential in the project. For this in the region a non-commercial organization “Association of suppliers for the oil and gas industry “Murmanshelf” was established, including over 160 organizations. “Murmanshelf” functions as a coordination centre and carries out an active policy on preparation of companies-suppliers and labour resources to work with the oil and gas industry. Norwegian association of suppliers “Petra Arctic” having long experience in work with oil and gas companies in Norway.

The settlement of Teriberka was chosen for construction of the LNG plant for the Shtockman field. In 2009 it is planned to complete elaboration of the technical documentation, and in 2010 – to start building of the plant. In Teriberka modern social infrastructure will be created, 42 km of roads will be constructed, 28 four-stored apartment blocks, two kindergartens, three schools, a sport swimming pool, a polyclinic with a hospital department will be built. All this will be done at the same time with the factory and even in outstripping rates. This is the evidence of the fact that carrying out this project the open joint stock company “Gazprom” plans to pay due attention also to social aspects. It is important that activities of all participants of the mega-project on development of the Shtockman field should in full measure take into account socio-economic interests of the Murmansk region, be carried out with strict observance of all ecological requirements and norms of socially responsible behaviour regarding all the population of the region.

OIL AND GAS OF ARCTIC SHELF 2008