Selin V. S, the main scientific employee of Institute
Economic problems of G.P.Luzin The Kola science center,The Russian Academy of Sciences, ph. d. , the professor

Problems and tendencies of economic development Murmansk area in long-term prospect

Problem of reliability of forecasts of change internal and an environment for any economic system (national, regional, branch, etc.) Is key at development of long-term strategy and programs of their development. At this abundantly clear what precisely and unequivocally to provide time parametres, character of change and degree of influence of all factors in their interdependence it is practically impossible. A classical example are modern processes in the world markets which all were very foggy looked through one year ago only in rare researches of separate economists. Anyway, any of national (branch) or regional concepts did not provide possibility of such drama dynamics. And now there is a question, in what measure they (concepts) are subject to updating and be how much thorough it should. Such question has arisen and at the closing stage of preparation of Strategy of social and economic development of Murmansk area for the period till 2025, including by its consideration in the expert organisation – the Center of strategic workings out "Northwest".

It is obvious, that the answer depends on that, crisis and recession following it will be how much long, and heavy their influence will be what. It is necessary to notice, that instability, in our opinion, is a normal condition of social and economic processes as they constantly are in dynamics. Other question, what deviation from recognised norm can be considered as dangerous, demanding this or that intervention.

Discrepancy of the situation developments

Processes are inconsistent also. For example, a necessary element of market economy is presence of free resources on a labour market. On the other hand, unemployment is an instability sign. Inflation serves as certain "stimulator" of demand, but characterises also negative tendencies, especially if exceeds some "threshold" values. Therefore, to draw conclusions on necessity of updating of already developed forecasts, it is necessary to stop on methodical approaches to their working out, characteristic for last five years' period at national and regional levels.

Despite increase of level of macroeconomic stability of the Russian economy, forecasting of prospects of its development remains an actual problem as for separate experts and experts, research institutes, and for the department which are responsible for working out of official governmental forecasts - the Ministries of economic development of the Russian Federation. And the range of estimations even short-term tendencies is rather great. To tell enough, that in 2007 the initial estimation of growth of the Russian economy - 6,2 % - has been raised in the beginning to 6,5 %, and then to 7,3 %. And significant enough revisions of forecasts and in previous years [1] were regular.

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Problems of researchers and politicians

The problem of researchers - to prove variants of an image of the future, a problem of politicians, and is possible also the population, - to choose a desirable (optimum) way of development and to express it in terms of the limited set of the purposes. Accurately, distinctly formulated purpose always helps to understand, what sort of action and what economy stand up for realisation of this problem. Besides, the scale purposes, as a rule, assume large quantity presence aims and more or less certain system of measures and institutes.

Thereupon we believe, that for the long-term plan for development absolutely not enough one purpose, for example gross national product doubling. However, it is not enough and hundred purposes, if they - no more than the declaration on intentions. It is necessary, that these purposes have turned to system of obligations of an executive power, in the system generating movement of material and financial streams. It is essential thus that for the national purposes of development answered not only the separate ministries and departments, but also the government.

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Change of criteria and factors of regional development

Change of criteria and factors of regional development essentially changes estimations of rationality of the developed placing of productive forces, demands new methods of a substantiation of directions adequate to market conditions and measures on its perfection.

All it predetermines expediency of research of processes of formation of the regional markets, revealings of regional crisis situations in social, economic and ecological spheres, estimations of financial and investment potentials of regions and inter-regional redistribution of financial resources, studying of features of a course of economic reforms and the analysis of some other problems directly connected with modern type of social and economic transformations. And problems of scientific researches of a condition of regional economy are put forward proceeding not only from necessity of forecasting of social and economic development of the country and formation of territorial strategy. Not less the great value gets the analysis of effectiveness of a regional policy and its substantiation in various spheres of a life of a society.

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Development of resources of the shelf of Arctic regions

In strategic prospect development of resources of a shelf of Arctic regions has no alternatives, and world financial crisis will not affect these processes. However in the intermediate term period, taking into account technological possibilities, input of new strategic objects, in particular the Shtokman deposit, most likely will move not less than for 5 years, that is till 2017.

Financial crisis has considerably complicated possibility of realisation of expensive projects, has lowered capitalisation and credit status of the largest raw corporations, however considering stability of real sector of economy and reduction of the proved stocks of hydrocarbon raw materials of the developed countries, the requirement for energy carriers will be restored the next 3-4 years. For domestic economy development of a shelf of the Western Arctic regions is long-term strategic necessity as from fastening positions on the major water areas, and considerable improvement of innovative dynamics, including with the account прогнозных climate changes.

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Prospects of strategic projects realization in Murmansk area

By working out of scenarios realisation prospects in territory of area of separate strategic projects were considered. The complex estimation of the external factors influencing development of Murmansk transport knot, has allowed to consider as most important of them:

1 condition (conjuncture) of the basic world markets of power resources (European, North American, Asian-Pacific), 70 % of hydrocarbon raw materials in aggregate consuming more;

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The development strategy of Murmansk area recognizes three basic scripts

Inertial – the economy and industry structure, in branches low level of technological changes as a whole remains. Rates of total regional product growth much lower then averages Russian: 1-2 % a year and no more than 50 % in the predicted period.

Energo-raw – the oil and gas sector of the industry and a necessary infrastructure, however Murmansk area is actively formed remains the transit region, processing capacities are not created. Rates of total regional product growth correspond averages Russian, the general growth in the predicted period in 2-2 times.

Innovative – the oil and gas sector forms processing enterprises in region and an infrastructure of high level. In traditional branches (mining and fishing complexes) innovative tendencies are marked. Growth ВРП in 3-3 time and labour productivity not less than in 3 times that exceeds averages Russian indicators.

In the INERTIAL scenario owing to set economic and political factors development of unique oil and gas deposits of the Arctic shelf is tightened.

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For the situation account corresponding stages are provided

On the first (2009-2013) are overcome consequences of world financial crisis, are created necessary conditions and the mechanism of innovative acceleration is formed, and on the second (2014-2025) - considerably raises technological level of an industrial complex and an infrastructure, is provided progressive growth of the added cost and social orientation of economy.

Considered stages differ on conditions, factors and priorities of economic dynamics.

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Problems of public authorities activity of Murmansk area

Problems of activity of public authorities of Murmansk area on strengthening of positive factors and counteraction to arising calls will be the organisation of purposeful and long-term interaction with business, and also a complex of measures on mobilisation of possibilities of a civil society. With a view of transition to the innovative socially-focused development of region in relations with subjects of enterprise activity strategic problems can be formulated as follows:

- Protection of interests of Murmansk area in the Government of the Russian Federation, the ministries and departments, including through participation in work of Federal meeting, the State Council of the Russian Federation, Inter-parliamentary association, Public chamber. Strengthening of participation of region in federal target programs, national projects, projects of the State investment fund, etc.;

- Decrease in administrative barriers in all spheres of economic activities, active counteraction to conditions and the facts of display of corruption;

- Creation of conditions for development of business and a competition, activization of mechanisms of self-regulation of enterprise community;

- The vigorous activity of public authorities of Murmansk area together with interested corporations and the companies on lobbying of interests of economy of region in the Government of the Russian Federation, the domestic and foreign organisations;

- Formation of conditions for scale creation of new private enterprises and the companies in all branches of economy, joint work with business on increase of the public status and the importance of business;

- Strengthening of participation of Murmansk area in the branches of business connected with development of an infrastructure and maintenance of social sphere, with creation of equal conditions for a competition on those directions where along with the state the private companies function;

- Maintenance of economic stability and investment appeal of region;

- Development of the state-private partnership directed on decrease of enterprise and investment risks, first of all in spheres of researches and workings out, distributions of new technologies, developments of a transport and power infrastructure;

- Support of initiatives of business on participation in development of social sphere and the human capital;

- Active support of the regional companies in frontier activity and use of resources on the Arctic shelf, protection of interests of business in case of infringement of its rights;

- Expansion of participation of enterprise community in preparation of decisions of public authorities of the Murmansk area connected with regulation of economy.

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